As the 2020 Congressional elections approach, New Hampshire senator Jeanne Shaheen continues to enjoy high favorability, but residents are divided whether she should be reelected. I demonstrate it“, research from the Center for Effective Lawmaking backs up that claim. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. PollTracker also shows Shaheen in the lead, 47.3 percent to 43 percent. They all sit in closely divided states (from R+2 for New Hampshire to D+2 for Minnesota), yes, but they are all also quite popular. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. — Tim Kaine (@timkaine) September 18, 2020, He is running against Daniel Gade, a newcomer to politics, who believes some responses to coronavirus are an overreaction and that “the curve is actually kind of flat in most places, so it’s time to get our economy back to work.”. Instead of backing bipartisan legislation to lower drug prices, he repeatedly prioritizes Big Pharma over North Carolina. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. I cannot trust Collins the betrayer. Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections — specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their party’s presidential ticket. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. Follow, support and donate to Jaime Harrison's campaign! ... Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire. https://t.co/OFaUgJ2fuJ, — Hannah Quinn (@hannahquinnnn) September 23, 2020. The Washington Post gave her a 99 percent chance of winning, the New York Times’ gave her a 91 percent chance of retaining her seat, and 538’s Nate Silver gave Shaheen a 90 percent chance of beating Brown. On this day in 1793, Virginian George Washington laid the cornerstone for the US Capitol. 538 gives Cunnigham a 63% chance of winning. That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No. Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised $8.6 million for an unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid, to run against him. Biden for president, so the odds are truly stacked against Sen. McSally — giving Kelly a. of taking the Senate seat, according to 538. According to 538’s calculations, she stands a 99% chance of emerging victorious. As a life-long North Carolinian, Cunningham has hammered Sen. Tillis for being responsible for not expanding Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act in the state, leaving more than 200,000 people without access to affordable health insurance. New polls out over the past few days show all four of New Hampshire's major races in the state to be too close to call. Even a Fox News poll shows him in a slight lead of 48%. Sen McCain’s widow just endorsed Biden for president, so the odds are truly stacked against Sen. McSally — giving Kelly a 78% chance of taking the Senate seat, according to 538. Two new polls show former New Hampshire Gov. AK: @DrAlGrossAK AZ: @CaptMarkKellyCO: @HickmanPollsGA: @ossoffGA: @ReverendWarnock IA: @GreenfieldIowa KY: @AmyMcGrathKYME: @SaraGideonMT: @stevebullockmtNC: @CalforNCSC: @harrisonjaime, Volunteer, donate, & VOTE!#FreshResists pic.twitter.com/8RdbH5XyZq, — Maverick (@Isellmpls) September 26, 2020. That may not look like anything special, but it’s actually quite impressive because Manchin is a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation (R+30). President Senate House Exit Polls. No matter who wins the 2020 presidential election, they won’t be able to get much done if their party doesn’t also win the Senate. Rasmussen gives her a net 17-point favorable rating, compared to -2 for Brown; Suffolk puts her at +16 and Brown at -10. Her experience (and years) in the Senate is likely to see her emerge as a winner. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Historically, the presidential election results in a given state have tracked closely with the Senate outcome there, and the two are only coming into closer alignment (in 2016, for example, the presidential and Senate outcome was the same in every state). Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. State Results . OK, America. With the help of Morning Consult, which polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators every quarter, we’ve created a statistic that I’m playfully calling Popularity Above Replacement Senator (PARS). This includes two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. #nhpolitics https://t.co/xNwaRwgk7m pic.twitter.com/GyagRSPPID, — students 4 jeanne (@students4jeanne) September 21, 2020. Graham’s current poor approval rating has been giving Harrison a big push with South Carolinians. Like I just kicked Mitch McConnell in the nuts. But PARS reveals why the handicappers aren’t so sure. BREAKING: A new poll shows that @harrisonjaime is slightly ahead of the shameless sycophant and hypocrite, Lindsey Graham. PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politician’s net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the state’s partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example. This page contains the current averages for each state for both the presidential race and senatorial race (if there is one), calculated using our algorithm.It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) This trove of data dates back to 1998, and covers all manner of races: Senate, House, gubernatorial, and presidential. Accordingly, he leads all senators with a +35 PARS. - Incumbent: Jeanne Shaheen (Democrat, senator since 2009) - 270toWin forecast rating: likely Democratic - Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 98 in 100 Democratic State Results CLOSE. A recent poll by Emerson Polling showed Smith leading Lewis 48% to 45%, with 7% undecided. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! The Hill 1625 K Street, NW Suite 900 Washington DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 tel | 202-628-8503 fax. Jones in 2020 Alabama is like Scott Brown in 2012 Massachusetts. Prior to that, she was the state’s first female governor. Chris Sununu toss his hat into the ring, a new poll of Granite State voters conducted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst shows. Three of her declared Republican challengers have very low name recognition in the state. Campaign stickers for U.S. Cory Gardner: You're Fired! McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. Gideon raised a million dollars immediately after she declared her campaign in December. This report makes it clear who Sen. Tillis represents in Washington. * Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (it’s +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. Here’s a list of all the Democrats that stand a solid chance of winning the Senate seats that are up for election, and those that are leaning towards likely. The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we haven’t calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. — Wayne-MakeAmericaAmericaAgain 11/3/20 (@django22) September 28, 2020. Sen. Collins riled people up when she voted in favor of Trump’s acquittal, and his Supreme Court appointee, Judge Brett Kavanaugh. Recent polls still show McConnell winning this race in Kentucky and maintaining his seat, but polls have been wrong before. Will Maine vote blue like it did in the last seven of the presidential elections? All rights reserved. Sen Collins made a statement that choosing a justice should be the next presidents job. 538 gives Hickenlooper a 72% chance of winning. Democrat Sen. Mark Warner is up for re-election for a third term. Susan Collins (25). Both were very fortunate to have won their special elections against very bad opponents, but reversion to the political mean is very hard to prevent. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. because each site has a different algorithm. Gardner is doing everything in his power to retain his seat — including currying favor with the president by backing his SCOTUS nominee to fill RBG’s seat. polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, Trump Leaves The White House Today, More Unpopular Than Ever, The Pandemic And The Attack On The Capitol Will Likely Define Trump’s Presidency, Why Trump’s Second Impeachment Will Be A Political Test For Both Republicans And Democrats. It’s based on the same premise as my Popularity Above Replacement Governor (PARG) statistic1 — that it’s a good idea to think about politicians’ popularity in the context of their states’ partisanship. Congressman Jason Lewis in the “land of close elections“, Minnesota. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. The South Carolina senate race is heating up with challenger Jaime Harrison giving Lindsey Graham a (literal) run for his money. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Every single vote counts! One poll even showed her disapproval rating at 53%, with 538 giving her opponent a 58% chance of taking the Senate from her. Let's pile on @CoryGardner right now and show him how we feel with an avalanche of donations for @Hickenlooper. On November 3, 35 incumbents — 12 Democrats and 23 Republicans — will fight it out for Senate seats. 538 gives the senator a 95% chance of retaining her seat. Sen. Tillis for being responsible for not expanding Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act in the state, leaving more than 200,000 people without access to affordable health insurance. https://t.co/YgBO1x7BPR, — The New York Times (@nytimes) September 19, 2020. @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (55 posts) Shaheen considered endorsing Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado, a long-shot Democrat, but chose Biden because, Shaheen said, “he is the candidate … Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we haven’t calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. - Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 98 in 100 Democratic. ... Pursuant to Senate Policy, petitions, opinion polls and unsolicited mass electronic communications cannot be initiated by this office for the 60-day period immediately before the date of a primary or general election. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). 2020 Electoral College Map 2020 Presidential Election Results Latest Presidential Election Polls 2020 Polling Averages by State Pundit Forecasts 2020 Simulation Historical Elections 2020 Democratic Primary 2020 Republican Primary. #DemCastCOhttps://t.co/sxEJBKFYCR, — Nick Knudsen (@DemWrite) September 21, 2020. Early voting starts today in Virginia and I will proudly vote for the Biden/Harris ticket, Mark Warner, and Donald McEachin to build a new foundation for prosperity for all Americans! Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 47 to 54 seats, I don’t just talk about it. A University of New Hampshire poll released Friday found that 43 percent of New Hampshire voters want someone to replace Sen. Shaheen, while 43 percent of New Hampshire voters want her reelected, and 15 percent do not know who they want to be elected in the 2020 Senate race.. Updated every two hours, this is an interactive Senate map derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-Madbury) won a third six-year term by beating businessman Corky Messner (R-Wolfeboro), 433,444 to 310,060 (56.92 percent to 40.72). 2 in PARS with a score of +33. Another race that will decide who controls the Senate, the two are polar opposites when it comes to key issues like the pandemic, economy, climate change, and policing. On the other hand, aside from masking up, Sen. Warner posts infamous tuna-melt tutorials that double as reminders to wash your hands. These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll,∗ conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred thirty-eight (538) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular Unlike this trio, there are some senators whose electoral fates probably do hinge on the presidential race. Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, Sara Gideon (D), is proving a challenging opponent for GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine as she fights it out for a fourth term. There are other races that aren’t polling quite so close, but that doesn’t mean the Democrats have no shot. Joseph R. Biden Jr. won New Hampshire's four electoral votes despite President Trump’s push to take back the state after losing it to Hillary Clinton by … AMHERST, Mass. Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states’ partisan lean. A member of the U.S. Senate since 2009 and having served as the state’s (first woman) governor before that, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is running for re-election against Bryant Messner (R) and Justin O’Donnell (L). If the Democratic presidential nominee carries their states (admittedly, this will be easier for Colorado than for Texas), the party may get a Senate seat as a bonus. Things in Kentucky are heating up, and former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath is putting up quite a fight for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s seat. I saw Tina Smith wearing Chuck Taylors and voting, so I bought Chuck Taylors and voted. Republicans also hold an advantage on the issue of foreign affairs, maintaining a 10-point lead as more trusted to handle international crisis, according to the Associated Press-GfK poll. A Granite State Poll from late August found the two in a virtual dead heat – but Brown still trailed Shaheen by 2 percent. November will tell. © 2021 ABC News Internet Ventures. Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day. Cory Gardner has announced he is all-in for a Trump SCOTUS pick. ... FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Change >> ... Jeanne Shaheen: Incumbent Re-elected : NJ: American astronaut, engineer, and former U.S. Navy captain, Mark Kelly is in a close battle for the Senate with Sen. Martha McSally who was appointed to the late Sen. John McCain’s old seat in 2019. The incumbent senator would need to call in a few more miracles to get re-elected in a year in which Trump will get over 60 percent in Alabama. 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